Journal Articles
 

RAPID EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION: SECTORAL POLICIES IN RWANDA

This publication should be read in the context of six other publications in this series. It provides the input and commodity composition for achieving a high growth rate in agriculture and details of the strategy for achieving such a growth rate. That strategy is in the context of the Government of Rwanda’s basic emphasis on commercialization and intensification as the twin pillars of accelerated agricultural growth and the commodity priorities delineated by the Parliament. The publication proceeds from determining the components of a high agricultural growth rate to calculating the impact of that growth on...
 

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COFFEE MUST NOW PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN GROWTH

• COMPENSATE FOR EVENTUAL SLOWING OF CEREALS

• ON THE ORDER OF 10% COMPARED TO CURRENT 4%

• LARGE POTENTIAL –

• Quality (relative price) increase
• Yields very low – varietal improvement, fertilizer
• Area expansion (smallholder plantation)
• Large domestic market
• International market growth is for high quality
 

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AGRICULTURE AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN GUATEMALA

This paper provides an analytical framework and comparative data for four low and middle-income countries to quantify the means by which rapid agricultural growth accounts for the bulk of employment increase. It is assumed that the market-oriented path for individuals out of poverty is through increased demand for labor and consequent increased employment and rising wages.

Throughout the analysis agriculture is seen as producing tradable commodities. Exportable handicraft and remittances are also seen as tradable. The rest of the rural sector is seen as small-scale, non-tradable, and employment intensive, with demand derived entirely from expenditure and its multipliers from the rural tradable sectors. The urban sector is seen as similarly divided into tradable and non-tradable, with the latter depending entirely on the labor income of the tradable sector for demand.

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FINANCING THE SMALL COMMERCIAL FARMER

WHAT CAN A FOREIGNER ADD TO THE DISCUSSION IN ETHIOPIA OF SUPPLYING CREDIT TO THE SMALL COMMERCIAL FARMER?

A foreigner who knows the history of credit to the small commercial farmer in his own country and has done vast amounts of research on such systems in Asian and African countries can bring valuable central tendencies from other countries. That information is useful in drawing basic principles that...

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CRITICAL ISSUES FOR FERTILIZER POLICY

Rapid Agricultural Growth Drives Poverty Reduction and Overall Growth

My paper presented to this group in January provided data and analyzed the relationships behind the Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) strategy that drives the national 20 year vision (Mellor 2012.) As discussed below ADLI gets the bulk of its agricultural growth from high potential areas and implicitly from the small commercial farmer. Those farmers spend half the increments to their income in the local, rural, non-farm sector (Dorosh and Mellor 2012.) That sector is employment intensive and its growth drives the rapid reduction in poverty that is always associated with rapid growth by the small commercial farmer...

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DETERMINANTS OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN EGYPT

Recent cross-national and inter-temporal studies of growth show that in low- and middle-income countries, the direct and indirect effects of agricultural growth account for the bulk of job formation and poverty reduction. Egypt has an unusually productive agricultural resource base and therefore unusual capacity to achieve the rates of agricultural growth that can greatly increase... 

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Conference and Occasional Papers
 

7.     Coffee Institutional Structures – International Experience in the Context of Ethiopia, Paper presented at Ministry of Agriculture Conference on National Institutional Structure for Coffee, Addis Ababa, June 2013.  

8.     Agricultural Finance Principles Drawn from International Experience, paper presented at Ministry of Agriculture conference on development of an institutional financial system for the small commercial farmer, Addis Ababa, January 2013.

9.     Critical Issues for Fertilizer Growth Policy, paper presented at Ministry of Agriculture conference on policies for accelerating growth in fertilizer use, Addis Ababa, June 2012

10.  Agriculture and Employment Growth in Guatemala,(with J. M. Barrios) IARNA, Guatemala. Occasional paper 26, 2006

11.  How Much Employment Can Rapid Agricultural Growth Generate? -Sectoral Policies for Maximum Impact in Rwanda." Agricultural Policy Development Project, Research Report No. 13, Abt Associates, Inc. Bethesda, MD. Occasional paper (jmellor@jmassocinc.com) 2002

12.  Determinants of Employment Growth in Egypt: The Dominant Role of Agriculture and the Small Scale Sector.(with Sarah Gavian); Impact Assessment Report No. 7, Abt Associates, Bethesda, MD. O 1999

 


NOTE:

Important to the forthcoming book Agriculture and the Economic Transformation, six of these papers (above 1; 3; 5; 10; 11; and 12) calculate the impact of agricultural growth on employment and poverty reduction applying (except for 5) a simplified growth accounting framework and multipliers based on the assumptions underlying two sector economic based fixed price models (as in Haggblade, Hammer, and Hazell (1991.) The application of the methodology is explained in Mellor and Malik 2017 – cited above. The countries covered are: Ethiopia, Pakistan, Guatemala, Rwanda, and Egypt.